Better Late Than Never Oscar Picks

I am only picking from the categories where I have seen enough of the nominations to form a real opinion.

Best Picture-
Hope will win: Black Swan
Think will win: The Social Network

All I have to say about Black Swan is THAT'S how you make a fuckin' movie. It worked well on every single layer of production. Sadly, Social Network has some powerful producers. I'm still hoping for a third year in a row of upsets.

Director-
Hope will win: David O. Russell for The Fighter
Think will win: David Fincher for The Social Network

Some of the best directors of the past twenty years are on this list so it's a tough call. I pick Russell because even though the film could be easily referred to as Mark Walburg's The Fighter, Russell did his homework on the subject and the area to deserve honor's credit. Academic metaphors!

Actress-
Hope AND Think will win: Natalie Portman for Black Swan

Character studies are hard to do. Harder even when the production value is very high. After a slew of crummy "block buster" movies, Portman has finally proved that she's the amazing actress I always knew she was.

I do partially wish Michelle Williams takes home the prize mostly to recognize Blue Valentine. Sadly that's what happens when your producers can't afford to lobby the hell out of your movie.

Actor-
Hope AND Think will win: Colin Firth for The King's Speech

Firth delivered such a sensitive yet strong performance- far more sophisticated than anyone else on the list...no matter how much I loved Jeff Bridges's incoherent ramblings.

Supporting Actress-
Hope will win: Melissa Leo for The Fighter
Think will win: Helena Bonham Carter for The King's Speech

Carter has a lot of buzz around her but I dare anyone from Massachusetts to tell me they don't know someone like Melissa Leo's character Alice Ward. She was a hard ass, a dedicated mother, and her accent wasn't over the top. She better freakin' win.

Supporting Actor-
Hope will win: Christian Bale for The Fighter
Think will win: Geoffery Rush for The King's Speech

Both were good but I haven't had so much fun mimicking Bale. I think he learned his part from watching some Bostonian Muppet- flailing limbs, wide unblinking eyes, and loud as balls. He also reminds me of one of my uncles. I'm totally biased this season but I blame Russell again for making the best movie about Massachusetts ever.

Original Screenplay-
Hope will win: Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy, and Eric Johnson for The Fighter
Think will win: David Seidler for The King's Speech

Both very good scripts but I predict Speech is going to pick up a lot of gold tonight.

Adapted Screenplay-
Hope AND Think will win: Aaron Sorkin for The Social Network

I can't knock good results. That was one of the best screenplays I've seen in a while. The characters were great and the banter was unpretentious. It's not really admitting I'm wrong because I wasn't informed enough in the first place. I still don't like the fact that there's a movie about Facebook but at least it's a good movie.

Animated Feature-
Hope AND Think will win: Toy Story 3

Wish it had some actual competition and wish that animated features didn't just mean kid movies. In fact, I could have seen Black Swan as an animated film, especially early on. Reminded me a lot of animation I've seen recently, but this is another debate for another day.

Art Direction-
Hope AND Think will win: The King's Speech

Mainly for Geffory Rush's office. The room really changed depending on Colin Firth's mood. Brilliant.

Cinematography-
Hope will win: Danny Cohen for Black Swan
Think will win: Jeff Cronenweth for The Social Network

Black Swan had a perfect integration of film and digital (Canon 7D, whatup). Social Network was a RED demo. Enough said.

Costume Design-
Hope AND Think will win: True Grit

Editing-
Hope will win: Black Swan
Think will win: The Social Network

Visual Effects-
Hope will win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Think will win: Inception

The effects in Harry Potter were seamless and beautiful. That's all I ask for in a movie that's mostly shot in front of a green screen.

Original Score-
Hope AND Think will win: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for The Social Network

These days, in order to make a good score, you have to either draw upon the emotions of the characters or be innovative as hell. Reznor and Ross went for the latter and kicked ass. This is what Daft Punk should have done for Tron Legacy.

Best Song-
Hope AND Think will Win: "We Belong Together" by Randy Newman for Toy Story 3

Come on, it's Randy!

Sound Mixing-
Hope will win: True Grit
Think will win: The Social Network

Sound Editing-
Hope will win: Tron Legacy
Think will win: Inception

I feel my picks from these two categories should be switched. Tron should win mixing and Social Network should win editing.

Stay tuned to see if I'm wrong!